Von Richard Haep aus Havanna (Welthungerhilfe)
Information on Hurricane Ike in Cuba provided by Welthungerhilfe Cuba Mon., Sep. 8th, 2008, 6 PM local time (GMT – 6h) updated 10 PM Richard Haep Director Regional Oficina de Coordinación de Proyectos Welthungerhilfe (antes Agro Acción Alemana) c/o ACPA Calle 10 No. 351, e/ 15 y17 Plaza, Vedado CP.12300 La Habana, Cuba Tel./ Fax: +53-7-838 21 31 E-Mail: richard.haep@dwhh.org programa.cuba@dwhh.org 1. Information on Ike: 1) IKE left territorial Cuba in Jucaro (south of Ciego de Avila, Province of same name), predicted course parallel to southern coast of Cuba crossing Cuba possibly in Havanna Province or Pinar del Río by Tuesday noon, close to trace of hurricane Gustav 2) Strengthening of IKE expected 3) IKE actually positioned at southern coast of Province Sancti Spiritus (4 PM), 965 MB, max. sustained winds 130 to 165 km/h gaining strength 4) Hurricane alert for all Provinces of the country incl. Isla de la Juventud by Civil Defense 5) Civil Defense ordered interruption of recuperation efforts form hurricane Gustav in Pinar del Río and Isla de la Juventud in order to saveguard resources 6) Civil Defense System working effectively; unusual 24h media coverage by radio and TV; public information however limited as most roads out of the cities affected are blocked by fallen trees and light posts and many communities/cities without communciation. Strong winds and heavy rains in eastern provinces hinder survey efforts 7) No evaluation of damages possible since hurricane still effects large part of the country, first information of injuries or fatalities in National News at 8 PM: 4 victims, 2 electro executed by power lines (Camaguey), one man killed by wall when his house collapsed (Banes; Holguin).
2. Preliminary assessment on impact of Hurricane IKE based on official and private information networks:
8) Guantánamo: heavy coastal flooding and rain (Baracoa), communication with City of Baracoa interrupted (tel., radio, electricity and roads). Río Toa out of cause due to heavy rains. Coffee harvest in municipality Maisí lost. Baracoa, Maisi and Yateras most affected municipalities (130,000 inhabitants; 84,000 rural), Road connection to Santiago interrupted due to water level of Yaya reservoir,
9) Santiago de Cuba: no access to municipalities Guama, Segundo Frente, roads damaged by flooding, danger of burst of dams (Baraguá); generally most affected northern municipalities (San Luis, Segundo Frente, Mella; together 175,000 inhabitants; 78,00 rural), agricultural crops partially lost, damages to houses and public infrastructure, heavy rains
10) Holguín (most affected province): northern / coastal municipalities most affected: Moa, Sagua de Tánamo, Frank País, Mayarí, Antilla, Banes, Rafael Freyre and Gibara (population together 470,000 people, 340,000 rural) damages also in municipality and city Holguin (together 330,000 inhabitants). Heavy damages to houses, public infrastructure (telecommunications tower down), agricultural crops lost, Rain up to 400 mm, heavy coastal flooding, winds locally higher than 200km/h as Ike passed province
11) Las Tunas (second most affected Province): northern / coastal municipalities most affected: Jesús Menendez, Puerto Padre, Manati (population together some 175,000, rural 90,000), heavy coastal flooding, very strong winds, houses damages, damage to agricultural crops and livestock installations expected
12) Granma: strong winds and heavy rains, flooding of Río Cauto basin expected (similar to effects of Tropical Storm Noel in 2007) as result of high tides and heavy rains draining most of the Oriente region, affected municipalities: Río Cauto, Cauto Cristo and Yara (128,000 inhabitants, 65,000 rural)
13) Camaguey (total 780,000 inhabitants): hurricane crossed entire province with eye close to city of Camaguey, flooding of northern coast and keys, houses destroyed, damages in agriculture and livestock installations
14) Ciego de Ávila (total 415,000 inhabitants):: heavy rains, houses collapsed, others damaged, flooding of northern coast and keys, flooding of southern coast, affected municipalities Baragua, Venezuela, Majagua, Ciego de Ávila, Primero de Enero (total 250,000 inhabitants, 65,000 rural),
15) Sancti Spiritus (total 460,000 inhabitants): no information available at the moment, hurricane passing the province
16) Villa Clara (total 810,000 inhabitants): communities cut off, bridges destroyed,
17) Cienfuegos (total 400,000 inhabitants): No information available, heavy rain, very heavy rain expected in mountain areas,
18) Matanzas (total 680,000 inhabitants): Ike will pass tomorrow morning along southern coast (Cienaga de Zapata), most damages expected in southern municipalities (Cienaga de Zapata, Calimete, Jaguey Grande, Union de Reyes, Perico; total inhabitants 175,000; 33,000 rural) with heavy floodings
3. Conclusions, assessment emergency humanitarian needs and recovery 1) Total population exposed to effects of hurricane aprox. up to 10 Mio., affected aprox. up to 2.5 Mio (500,000 persons already affected by Gustav, 100,000 houses affected (mostly roof), damages estimated between 3 and 4 billion USD), possible damages of Ike can reach and exceed Gustav levels 2) Expected damages of 100,000 to 200,000 houses or more (mostly roofs), of public infrastructure (schools, hospitals, warehouses, local and regional power grids, coastal roads, roads and bridges close to rivers, telecommunications etc.) 3) Likely heavy and extensive damage to crops and seeds for future planting in Eastern Provinces and Centre of the country, leaving country vulnerable to food insecurity on national scale for the next 6 months. 4) Similar damages expected in eastern provinces 5) Cuban strategic reserves will be exhausted soon due to extremely high demand on restitution of public infrastructure giving priority to schools, hospitals and power grid as well as food supply for almost the entire population of the country 6) Emergency Aid (mattresses, food, tents etc.) and funds for reconstruction will be needed on a very large scale (corrugated iron, tools, cement, etc.) 7) Priority should be given to re-establish private productive infrastructure in the agricultural and livestock sector incl. rural housing of farmers as it ranks low in the Cuban priority list according to experiences from earlier hurricanes
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