Nicht gerade optimistisch (aus kubanischer Sicht), was aus dem Vergleich Vietnam/Kuba am Schluss des Berichtes von Newsweek herauskommt:

... Conversely, there are about 1.5 million exiled Cubans, almost all of them in Miami, a few hundred kilometers away from Havana. They represent nearly 15 percent of the total Cuban population of 11 million ....

They will never have the satisfaction of overthrowing Fidel Castro, but they might well be able to buy a sizable chunk of his island if given the chance. The Castros probably can't continue to deny the right to own property forever, and once they open the door, attempts to prevent Cubans from selling to expats in Miami (or to persuade expats not to buy) are likely to fail. So if Cuba tries to go Vietnam's way, reforming the economy in order to hold on to political power, it may well end up in the worst of all worlds: without a national market economy, and without a democratic political system.


http://www.newsweek.com/id/148924/output/print